Its been very long since we posted here and in the meantime, the iSimulate user community has been growing at a steady rate. We try to let in new users as soon as possible — so please register and get on-board this newest wave of Economics 2.0 !

Also during this time, we have managed some significant system upgrades (and are still working on a few more) to make iSimulate more scalable. We have been experimenting with a system architecture where model developers can provide access to their own economic models via iSimulate.

And though the economic models on iSimulate are still few in number, we are looking at adding some exciting new models (for eg: MDG simulations) over the next few months. So stay tuned and write to us with comments or suggestions!

Gauresh Rajadhyaksha is the Project Coordinator for iSimulate @ World Bank

The World Bank launched the Global Economic Prospects 2008 last week.

(iSimulate @ World Bank was used to coordinate the creation of some of the results in the publication.)

Gauresh Rajadhyaksha is the Project Coordinator for iSimulate @ World Bank

As new users begin to slowly experiment with iSimulate, we would like to emphasize some of the collaborative aspects of the system.

By default, all iSimulate users are subscribed to an open community called “Public”. The idea of this Public group is to have a community that represents the collaborative intelligence of all iSimulate users. We hope that the Public group grows into a rich repository of economic intelligence and the latest data.

So if you are an economist using some of the data for your own experiments, please remember to give something back to the community. It could be small things like minor data corrections or a blog post about your work.

Or if you are a statistician with access to data releases, it would help if you would incorporate the data updates into iSimulate so as to reach out globally in an innovative manner.

Or if you are just an everyday economist at heart, email us your comments on improving iSimulate - be it suggestions for newer models or ideas for new system functionality. We’d also love to hear if you would like to assist with this initiative in any way.

So as a user on iSimulate, feel free to experiment with the data in the Public group - run simulations (Solve) and aggregations (Update) - and share your expertise with others.

And remember, it is important to run aggregations not only to keep the global models consistent, but also because it makes your contributions more visible. This in turn helps users build on each other’s individual expertise and makes iSimulate into a first-of-its-kind free collection of economic intelligence.

Gauresh Rajadhyaksha is the Project Coordinator for iSimulate @ World Bank

First of all, I’d like to welcome all the iSimulate users that have been granted access to the system recently. iSimulate was designed from day one as a framework to facilitate collaboration between expert practitioners. But a framework is only as powerful as its users, and that’s why we’re pleased that so many of you have jumped on the bandwagon this early in the game.

The iSimulate team strongly believes in the power of transparency and openness within communities. So while you’re working in iSimulate, you’ll notice that everything you do within a group is public information to fellow group members. This was an intentional design choice. We believe that the collaboration mechanisms on iSimulate allow each of us to focus on our own areas of expertise, while drawing from the strengths of the community to improve the end product.

From a technical standpoint, this same philosophy led us to develop iSimulate using open-source technologies. Open-source software is designed by the community, for the community. It stands in direct contrast to software designed “behind closed doors” in which the eventual users of the software have limited ability to impact its design during development.

To keep with our mantra of openness and transparency, we’d like to give brief mention to some of the wonderful open-source technologies that power iSimulate @ World Bank:

What is it?
“PHP is a widely-used general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited for Web development and can be embedded into HTML.” – www.php.net

What did we use it for?
PHP is the server-side programming language that powers iSimulate. Every page on iSimulate runs on PHP.

What is it?
“Symfony is a web application framework for PHP5 projects. It aims to speed up the creation and maintenance of web applications, and to replace the repetitive coding tasks by power, control and pleasure.” – www.symfony-project.org

What did we use it for?
Symfony helped organize the iSimulate codebase into maintainable modules. It also eased the development of some neat Web 2.0 facilities on iSimulate.

What is it?
“Ext is a client-side, JavaScript framework for building web applications.” – www.extjs.com

What did we use it for?
Whenever you load a country on iSimulate, ExtJS powers the grid that allows you to view and modify its data before executing simulations.

From here on out, we want to make the development of iSimulate an open process. If you have any suggestions on the future of the software, please let us know!

David Horowitz is the Lead Software Developer for iSimulate @ World Bank

Just yesterday we released a new version of iSimulate @ World Bank and have a Site Tour to go with it. I’m going to use this small post to provide a few more details on executing simulations.

To begin with, the WB Global macro model comprises National Income Accounts and Balance of Payments data for over 150 countries. All data is currently in annual figures through 2009. [Please keep in mind that the data is a part of the experimental macro-model and does not reflect the World Bank’s opinions or forecasts! – it is meant for you to have some base data to execute your own simulations.]

As a user on the system, you begin by first selecting to work in a group that subscribes to the WB Global model. The system then requires you to select a country and load its data on a grid. (A grid is like a spreadsheet, but with limited functionality.)

Once on the grid interface, you will notice that the data in the cells is editable. (Use the icon on the grid toolbar to get quick help.) Changing the data on the grid does not execute a simulation instantaneously. You can execute a country-level simulation by hitting the Solve Model button. (Note that the WB Global macro model picks up changes between 2005 through 2009 only). Every solution is logged in the system and you can revert to any previous simulation result by clicking the Country Log button.

In our experience managing the system, we have noticed that users tend to execute multiple country-level simulations that give rise to various interesting scenarios.

However, the truly collaborative part of the system is the ability for the model to pick up these country-level simulation results and calculate global aggregates. This is done using the Update Model button. We encourage you to perform these global aggregations frequently as it ensures consistency across other countries in the model.

All global aggregations are recorded in the system and become a part of the group’s recent activity feed (which is visible to other group members after logging in).

Gauresh Rajadhyaksha is the Project Coordinator for iSimulate @ World Bank

Over the last month, we have been working to make the iSimulate user experience more friendly and intuitive. So as we begin letting in new users, here is a brief backgrounder on some nitty-gritties of the system and what to expect when you log-in:

iSimulate @ World Bank is based on the idea of users organizing themselves in “working groups” and using “applications” to execute simulations. A working group is like any other online community. It comprises of people you know and with whom you would like to share your simulation results. An application is an economic model that is available on iSimulate.

A user on iSimulate @ World Bank must first be a part of a group to access an application. Any iSimulate user can join pre-existing groups or create new groups.

The owner (or admin) of a user-created group can add applications available on iSimulate. Once a group has access to an application, all users within the group can work on that model and dataset in real-time.

So what can you do when you log - in?

You can start off by executing simulations. By default, every user is a part of the “Public” group which is already subscribed to an application. So all you have to do is select the Public group and launch an application for simulation.

Once you get a feel for the applications and the simulation process, you can start creating your own groups and adding available applications. And yes, you can always search for available groups and join these user communities. These are the first steps toward setting up your own working community!

Gauresh Rajadhyaksha is the Project Coordinator for iSimulate @ World Bank

Now that we have taken the initiative to start this blog, I cannot resist the opportunity to explain how economic modelers worked in the old days, so that all of us realize how close we believe we are to an innovative breakthrough. By developing iSimulate @ World Bank, and more importantly, by pressing for a free public release on the Internet, our young team has loaded a big responsibility on its shoulders. iSimulate is a big step into new uncharted territory. Global macroeconomic modeling will never be the same again.

In the old days, global macroeconomic modeling was a highly specialized activity. Multi-year projects in international organizations or sizeable economic institutions would produce large economic models that were clearly identified with the institution that created them: Multimod at the IMF, Interlink at the OECD, MCM at the Federal Reserve to name a few. Creating these models comprised more than just formalizing the underlying economic theory or estimating the equations or testing simulation properties. A lot of effort also went into constructing data systems with a logical nomenclature, improving solution algorithms and designing interfaces for input and output.

Most often all these organizations went through a development cycle of sorts:

Interestingly, every institution would struggle through this cycle independently!

So then, why do I say that iSimulate @ World Bank is a breakthrough? Not because I feel that there is finally a model that will last forever. And not because everybody can now use the same model with the same data. On the contrary, iSimulate will provide the opportunity to create new models much more frequently than ever before and will make it possible to work with many different models at the same time. I feel the real breakthrough is in how models will be created and how they will be used in the future.

iSimulate @ World Bank already has three key characteristics that define this next generation of macroeconomic modeling:

1. Models are being built backwards: With a strong focus on user interaction, models are now being built with easy-to-use interfaces with quick access to up-to-date information. Underlying mechanisms are being gradually improved with the cost-benefit analysis for the user in mind.
2. Models are shared before they are ready (and in my opinion, they actually will never be ready). Triggering interest from others and sharing initial ideas is now considered to be more important than internally perfecting systems that are clearly identified with the institution.
3. And most importantly, the modeling can now be done in cooperation across institutions and with people from different parts of the world. Technology can now provide a common environment for simulations with the ability to share results easily.

Gauresh and David might argue that I don’t have enough imagination; that I am thinking too narrowly. In their dreams they are already beyond macro-economic models and see applications in climate models or other areas. As my team’s responsibility is mainly global macroeconomic analysis, I will tend focus their efforts in this area. I feel there is much to be done even in this seemingly narrow application.

The ultimate success though will not depend on what we in the World Bank can do (that will always be limited), but on the reactions this initiative will trigger outside the Bank. I have no idea about the latter, but I am very curious to find out.

Hans Timmer is a Manager at the World Bank and Project Lead for iSimulate @ World Bank

Over the many years, the Development Economics group at the World Bank has been involved, amongst other things, in macroeconomic forecasting for the global economy. Some of our work gets published in the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects and Global Development Finance publications. A few years ago, the team began experimenting with various technologies to assist the team members in their work. iSimulate @ World Bank is one such experiment that has grown to be a much larger initiative.

So what really is iSimulate @ World Bank? …

iSimulate @ World Bank is a web-based platform to perform collaborative economic simulations. The system has the ability to host various types of global macro models and allows users to organize themselves and work in real-time with shared sets of data and economic models. (Currently the system hosts an experimental World Bank global model with 152 countries - more on this in a later post). The neat part of the system is that users can not only access data, but also run customized user-defined simulations. The system also has a web 2.0 flavor with built-in activity feeds, wiki-like simulation logs, dynamically created blogs for each iSimulate group, and more. For those technically inclined, a simplified block diagram is on the right.

… and why did we develop it?

A year ago, we identified our team’s need to meaningfully connect with economists and other colleagues located inside and outside of the Bank across the world. Thus, to begin with, we felt we needed a simple web-interface for our economic model. And that’s exactly how we started: by creating a simple functional interface for our models and data. However, during this time, we also realized that we were onto something much bigger: we were in fact creating a broader platform which can host different types of simulation models (macroeconomic or otherwise). We saw the potential of the system in a whole new light as it opened up the opportunity to create a “niche community around a system”. And so was born iSimulate @ World Bank, our experiment in “collaborative intelligence”, where we attempt to provide a working environment for users to collectively work on diverse simulation models.

Gauresh Rajadhyaksha is the Project Coordinator for iSimulate @ World Bank

It gives me great pleasure to write the first blog post on what we expect to be a long and successful initiative at the World Bank. After looming under the radar for a few weeks without being noticed, we have quickly been thrust into public view due to two wonderful blog posts (@FreeGovInfo and @PSD blog) by our colleagues at the IMF and the IFC.

Taking cue from our fellow bloggers, we have decided to maintain this blog to get you the latest developments on iSimulate @ World Bank. I realize that a lot of you reading this post have already pre-registered with the system and are wondering when complete access will be granted. And though I cannot give you a firm date, I assure you that we are trying to let you in as soon as possible.

However, to make your wait a little more enjoyable, we will use this blog to give you a behind the scenes look into the system. Over the next few weeks, we will take you through the “how and why” of iSimulate @ World Bank and move on to more recent technical developments. Our manager, Hans Timmer, will give you his insights on the next generation of macro-economic modeling using such a system. David Horowitz, lead software developer of iSimulate, will give you a sneak peek into the iSimulate user experience. And with some luck, we will also get some of the World Bank’s economic model developers to write a few posts!

In the meanwhile, please feel free to comment to let us know what you expect from such a system. And thanks very much for being a part of iSimulate @ World Bank. We look forward to a meaningful collaborative experience over the times to come.

p.s. If you haven’t pre-registered for access, please do so right away!

Gauresh Rajadhyaksha is the Project Coordinator for iSimulate @ World Bank